ANYTHING IS POSSIBLEEEEE!
Nothing; NOTHING!, gets my juices flowing like NBA talk, and what is at the pinnacle of NBA talk? That's right, you guessed it; PRESEASON, BABY! I mean, who else spends their days and nights relentlessly immersed in non-stop action that doesn’t count!? Hello?... Anyone?... Bueller…. Just me? Ok, some things never change I guess, but I’m here to tell you that even though the preseason doesn't count, it matters.
The inaugural edition of this blog will be looking at players that I think will exceed expectations. Basically, I like these players more than the consensus and will be targeting them in any way that I can, whether that be cards and/or fantasy. With the NBA Season right around the corner, starting October 18th, let's dive into it.
1. Darius Garland - Darius was an all-star last season and is starting to get the respect he deserves. If the Cavaliers are the team that the media believes they will become (being touted with the best young core in basketball) this season and over the next two or three seasons, Darius will be the facilitator and running the show night in and out. The stage is set for Darius and newly acquired Donovan Mitchell and if Darius can somehow outshine Mitchell by ways of his fantastic shooting ability, elite passing vision & a slippery way of always getting his runner off at the rim… he will be a problem this upcoming season for opposing defenses and make investors extremely happy.
2. Tyrese Maxey - Maxey bulked up a bit this off season and looks great this preseason already. He is as explosive as ever and a true pro at getting to the rim. Bulking up during the off-season will only help his chances of finishing tough lays, beating defenders off the dribble, and being able to defend his opponent. Maxey is in a position of third fiddle on the sixers, but he can potentially take over games during the regular season and get the team wins if Harden and Embiid are having off nights or unwilling to exert the maximum energy we know they sometimes don’t exhibit & if Tyrese’s 3 is falling? It’s over.
3. RJ Barrett - Signing 100 Million man Jalen Brunson this off season gives New York a true point and a leader at the position that they have been trying to fill for years. This will do nothing but help RJ in his development. Part of this prediction is that the Knicks allow RJ to be the 1 option over Julius Randle, who is simply not the guy for the Knickerbockers. RJ is top 5 at simply getting to the rim with his biggest fault being his unwillingness to pass out of a contested drive & that aspect of his game looks to be improving which will add a new dynamic to his game and hopefully increase his PPG and/or Shooting percentages.
4. Jalen Smith - In 2020, the Phoenix Suns got a shocking invitation to the bubble and miraculously went 8-0 while still missing the playoffs, it truly set the franchise up for future success. Phoenix, just a few short months later, shocked the world again with the 10th pick in the 2020 NBA Draft selecting Jalen Smith over higher projected prospects (Tyrese Haliburton 12th pick by SAC). The now Indiana Pacer projected starting power forward will be a walking double-double this season on a below average Pacers team. After being dealt from the Suns, Jalen averaged 14 & 8 in 24.7 minutes a night for Indiana. Having the entire offseason to work with Tyrese and his otherworldly passing ability, Jalen should be in for a good year. A lot of this take is based on the attention Tyrese and other scorers (Hield,Duarte) will draw & the potential dealing of Myles Turner during the season. As a result, I see Jalen Smith being the largest beneficiary with easy bucket after bucket and minimal threat at his position.
5. Zeke Nnaji - Some of you just said “who?” Some know Zeke due to ripping too much wax, either way… the Nuggets have a problem that flies under the radar. Yes, Jamal Murray and MPJ coming back will propel the team to new heights. Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are great role players for the team, the only lacking piece is Aaron Gordon. Sure, he is flashy and can explode on dunks, but quite frankly, he doesn’t fit on the team. I’d like my Uber talented, reigning back-to-back MVP, big man to be able to work the floor and dish to open shooters all night long. Aaron Gordon can “barely” stretch the floor shooting 33% from 3 on a mere 3 attempts a night. Zeke Nnaji on the other hand; 46% from 3 on 2.5 attempts in 17 minutes a night. Small sample size for sure, but the upside is clearly there where Aaron Gordon is lacking. Do we see the nuggets making a switch this season at the starting PF? With only competition for minutes being Uncle Jeff Green (36) & Deandre Jordan (34) look for an uptick & fairly impactful minutes out of Zeke in 2023.
6. Anfernee Simons - The opportunity is there with CJ out the door and Simons should step in and become the counterpart to the Damian Lillard lead offense. Many have Anfernee as their favorite for Most Improved Player this season and for good reason. Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic help fill out a decent starting five on a team lacking bench depth. Jerami had the ultimate green light with the Pistons, averaging 20+ppg, unless this happens again the scoring for Portland must come somewhere and the young exciting bucket getter in Simons seems like the likely choice. Pencil in Anfernee as a prime candidate to average 20+.
7. Kendrick Nunn - After an extremely impressive finals run with the Heat, Kendrick fell off the face of the earth. He suffered a bone bruise injury and unfortunately missed the entirety of last season. In the preseason Nunn is averaging 17 points on 60% from the field and 53% from 3 point range, displaying how he typically gets his buckets as he has attempted only 3 shots from the charity stripe over 3 games. Some project him as starter or the sixth man, either or, Kendrick has his opportunity to show the world his scoring talents once more on a depleted Lakers team begging for some help and relief for LeBron.
8. Coby White / Ayo Dosunmu - With Lonzo Ball's injury the starting point guard spot is wide open. Ayo fits better as he can dish the ball and provide defensive help to the starting lineup that can clearly score between LaVine and DeRozan. Ayo also started the preseason at point, although 67% of his minutes came at the 2 last season. Coby is an electric off the bench scorer with a few 30 point games under his belt already. Watching him last season it seemed as if the game had finally started to slow down for him, a common feat of 3rd year points. Playing 99% of his minutes at point in the prior season, Coby may seem like the answer, but it is unclear as of now who the biggest benefactor of the lonzo injury will truly be. Either way, both guys should have a good season.
9. Isaac Okoro - Double dipping here with the Cavaliers but for good reason. Okoro projects to be the defensive lockdown starting small forward for the Cavaliers, tasked with guarding opposing teams best players night in and night out. Teammates and those around the team are constantly praising how much better he looks and while there is still a solid chance he averages around 10 points per game, his all-around impact will be felt on the court. He may not translate to the best investment, but Isaac gets a ton of open 3 point shots and open Fastbreak layups and if he slightly increases the rate at which he can drill 3’s, we’re in for a good season.
10. Killian Hayes - Rated as the worst player in basketball his rookie season, Killian Hayes may shock some by being on this list. This heavily leans on urgency. Killian may lose his spot on a roster soon enough if he does not produce. Scouts drooled over him pre-draft and he still possesses a vast skill set but, with Detroit drafting Jaden Ivey, Killian can either; play well and prove he belongs or, he will fumble and fall out of the league. Overall, I see a Killian investment as a cheap price point for a young player with good upside IF it clicks & it’s a big if….
11. Jaden Mcdaniels - Certainly not a household name quite yet, Jaden is now the only non all-star in the Timberwolves impressive starting five and he is a complete bucket. Jaden in college at Washington looks like a very very very raw Kevin Durant. Super skinny and lengthy, good at getting to the rim, and an improving jump shot are all ingredients for a recipe of success in this league. Jaden may be the forgotten player in games, and he may burn his opposition over and over as a result.
12. Santi Aldama - Huh? Did I type that correctly? Yes. The only Grizzlies rookie since Ivan Rabb & Wayne Selden back in 2016 & 2017 that you didn’t want out of your packs and break spots. With Jaren Jackson jr set to miss time this season, the most likely player to step up into the starting role is Santi. Memphis likes running Brandon Clarke off the bench and so be it, he thrives there. Santi in his first preseason game went for 21 points on 7-9 shooting (4-5 from 3) and 6 rebounds in 24 minutes. While I am not saying Santi is going to be amazing or the next big thing, I believe he will be appreciated as he will step into a starting lineup next to Ja Morant and get national attention as a result. If he can carry over the preseason momentum into the regular season in any way, shape or form…. A cheap shot in the dark on Aldama could very well pay off.
Honorable Mentions: Collin Sexton, Kevin Huerter, Josh Green, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy, Austin Reaves, Cameron Thomas, Dalano Banton, Tre Mann, Franz Wagner, Jaylen Nowell, Keon Johnson/CJ Elleby, Jordan Nwora, Quentin Grimes, Tari Eason (Rookie), Jamal Cain (Rookie)
]]>Obviously, there was no way the hobby could sustain the growth it was experiencing in 2020… I knew it, you knew it, we all knew it. No-one (including myself) wanted to believe it would end so soon (although we knew it was a very plausible outcome).
I for example, spent $1850 a box on 2021 Prizm NBA basketball in April 2021. I bought 36 boxes at this price. That is greed. There is NO WAY that this product warranted this kind of price tag, but when all we see is up up up, it’s hard to justify passing up any product at any price point. I lost over 50% on this play.
I also have cases of cards I bought for $1200 in late 2019 that are worth 10-15X. It goes both ways. We all had the chance to pump the breaks a little earlier this year, and most of us didn’t.
You live and you learn. The past is the past. I was not around for the 1980’s bubble so I couldn’t learn from my past mistakes. I did not have the feeling in my gut needed to know when enough was enough as I never lived through it. Now I know.
I mentioned bubble above. Although this was a bubble, the sports card market did not burst or bust so to speak, and probably never will again. What we are seeing now is a much-needed market correction. Yes, it is down quite a bit over the past 3 months, however like I previously mentioned, we are light years ahead of where we were over a year ago.
The market is healthy. Cards that were selling for $50 in 2019 are selling for 5-7X. Boxes that were trading for $100 in 2019 are selling for 7-10X. This is the happy medium we needed. Investors/speculators took over the market for 12 months, and now we are finding a happy balance of both them and collectors.
There is still plenty of money to be made in the hobby. You can still buy low and sell high if you know what you are doing. It just was not healthy in my opinion, that anyone could make money on cards in 2020 – early 2021.
My father always told me a bubble usually does not burst until everyone is in. We are lucky that the world opened back up just in time.... before “everyone” was in the pot.
The people I feel bad for the most, are the people who quit their jobs over the past 12 months and gave up health benefits to be a "breaker" as the money was pouring in. They never saw the 2018/2019 hobby. They saw phenomenal 2020 margins and were getting rich quick. I get asked all the time from people “what is the best way to get started?” “I want to quit my job and break full time”. I feel like crap telling them, but my honest answer is don’t. 90% of the retail breakers we see now will be out of business by late 2021. New to the hobby Breakers with lots of overhead will be out as well, as the margins are going to be much slimmer, and allocations are going to be harder to get than ever before. Re-ordering from distributors is becoming tougher than ever as market pricing is tough to sell right now, and the allocations will not make it worth it for most breakers.
I do believe wax prices stop sliding, and stay where they currently are once PSA re opens. People will once again be able to open a box and grade their singles. (this is the biggest rush imo).
I do not believe we will ever see early 2021 wax prices again,
I believe the days of seeing a modern day (2019-2021) card sell for 6 figures are behind us (mostly). This was not healthy for the hobby. Yes, there should be 1-2 players across all sports combined that garner this hype, but not 50% of them.
I do not believe high end cards with low populations will see the same decrease that high population base cards will see in the coming year.
I still believe case breaks are a better alternative to personal boxes (my stance has not changed since 2018) unless you are buying a certain box with a specific goal in mind.
I still believe the community aspect of case breaks far outweighs any advantages of buying your own boxes as well.
I still believe that the sports card hobby is one of the best if not the best hobby in the world. The attention it has garnered in the past year has helped to catapult it back to the late 90’s early 2000’s. This was when I collected as a kid and had some of the best times in my life. Now it allows a big kid with extra money to collect what they want and make money as long as they make sound decisions.
If you take anything away from this blog, I hope it is this….
If you absolutely love the hobby, love the action, and have a true passion for it, don’t panic. The sky is not falling. Prices are correcting which is natural. If you lost money, it happens to everyone. Don’t quit now. Now is the time to lick your wounds, come up with a game plan, and dominate the market you love.
]]>We are just beginning to come out of a worldwide pandemic.
Jobs have been lost, lives have been ruined, and sports cards are king.
Now that I have your attention…. Let’s make some money.
As of 3/1/21, PSA has drastically increased their pricing.
Pricing for bulk (now referred to as value) has increased by 200%+
Pricing for 20 day (now referred to as regular) has increased by 400%
Pricing for Express (now referred to as Super Express) has increased by 300%
PSA no longer guarantees turnaround times, rather lets you pick your own poison instead.
What do we mean by that?
PSA now offers CTD’s (Complete Through Dates).
As per PSA…
“Services defined by turnaround times are a thing of the past. Look, there’s no way around it. We are busy. And we want you to know just how busy we are before you make your submission decisions. This is partly to manage your expectations, but also to give you the transparency you need to make the most of the opportunities in today’s marketplace. Complete Through Dates ("CTD") are everything turnaround times are not. They are data driven, transparent, dynamic, and easy to understand.
A service level’s Complete Through Date is the day before the date of the oldest open order in the PSA system for that service level. In other words, it represents the date by which PSA has completed orders through. The CTD is based on order entry date, which means the day the order was formally entered into the PSA system for authentication and grading.
You can use CTDs to check the progress on your order by comparing the "Entered" date on your My Orders page to the service level’s Complete Through Date to get an idea as to the remaining time before your order will be completed. Posted CTDs update daily and you can follow along as the CTD advances closer to your order’s Entered date.”
INITIAL THOUGHTS
At first, I was shell shocked like almost everyone else. My initial thoughts were, “How can anyone afford to submit their cards at these prices? What cards are really “worth” getting graded now?”
After a few moments, I changed my mindset from victim to entrepreneur.
The increase in prices creates so many scenarios in which we as collectors can win.
First, I would start off by looking at current PSA 10 slabs in the $100 range. I think these will increase in the near future naturally due to the price of grading increasing exponentially.
The PSA holder itself now adds another $10-15 to that card.
Take into account the fact that those population reports should remain rather stagnant moving forward and you have yourself a nice buy low opportunity.
**Some slabs that come to mind are 2018 Topps Update Ohtani PSA 10 ($60 range) and 2019 Topps Update Chrome Vladimir Guerrero Jr. PSA 10 ($70 range))**
NEXT, I would like to remind you to be aggressive while the masses are scared or angry.
Since the average collectors are going to be reluctant to submit their cards due to price increases, you can take this time to create a market for a certain card with less “current” profit margins, but potential for big returns in the future.
NO ONE is sending in $2 inserts anymore right?
Why not send in 3 Zion second year inserts that will become a POP 3 when they get back?
Sure it will cost you more now, but with less competition, you can name your price in the future (to some extent).
Lastly I want to point out that the express and super express options are now your new best friends. (for new releases).
By PSA raising prices from $55 to $150, this is going to knock out most people who were submitting $1-$200 cards to be first to the market. These people were taking a $100 card, spending $55 to grade, and profiting $450-500 in most cases (if not more).
Lowering profit by nearly 25% is a real buzz kill for most people. BUT (and hear me out), what if the amount of people submitting at these new levels drops more than anticipated, and you are one of the very few savvy people who made the decision to submit these types of card? What if it turns out the demand now far outweighs the supply for this card, causing this said card to rise even more due to the lack of supply.
Let’s use a 2020 Select Base Justin Herbert for example.
Once this product releases, the card will be worth anywhere from $100-200 raw. Many people are going to be scared to spend $150 to grade a card of this value, as the upside on this play is now limited. But what if you send in 20 of these and spend $3000? What if you used the price increase to your advantage and zigged when everyone was zagging? What if it was normally a $500 PSA 10 but lack of supply put it to where a PSA 10 Prizm Rookie was in this same scenario when grading prices were 300% less? Did I lose you?
The moral of the story is don’t join the masses in their pity party. Think outside the box, and make these PSA changes work for you.
Also, make sure to join our case break community where we talk sports cards and the hobby daily here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/TopTierCollectiblesBaseballBreaks
We also post breaks daily to our website here: https://filthbombbreaks.com/collections/breaks
]]>SO everyone is talking about these rumors and how PSA is increasing prices and that it’s ugly. If you really think about the sports card market as a whole, lets talk simple numbers. Right now, the average cost for sealed product is 5 times the average price of what you would have been able to find it for before all of this hype. You need to understand that in simple marketing, price is determined by supply and demand and the only reason why they are these prices today is people are actually buying these cards at these prices. So when a company like PSA automatically adds monetary value to your cards by giving it that stamp of approval of condition, of course people are gonna flock in and get their cards graded. For example, Lamelo Ball’s 2020-2021 Draft Picks Silver Prizm Raw (or ungraded) sells on average for about $130 on ebay. Now, take that card and give it a PSA 10, and now that card is valued at approximately $800. If you’re PSA and you see how much value you added and you only charge $55 for a grading service, of course you should charge more. Yes, this example is probably one of the higher end cards, but if their purpose is to shrink their backlog, then an increase of 30% is not doing anything. PSA already increased their prices twice in 2020 and despite that increase, collector’s universe’s q1 revenue for 2021 was still 50% higher than last years. Point is, there is still no slowing down with the price increases, because even at the current rates, there is more demand than ever. Submission pricing going up was inevitable and until submissions slow down to have PSA’s backlog shrink it will continue to increase. As of today, the current turnaround times for cards are:
10 Day – 1-2 Months
20 Day - 3-4 Months
65 Day – 8-12 Months
Anyone new to grading already thinks that’s absurd, but all of this is due to such a high demand. PSA even completely stopped offering economy on their site. Simply put, the people who are submitting cards for grading are not dumb. Everyone is doing it to increase value and if the grading price isn’t less that the value it adds, then you’re not going to submit them. But right now, anyone with an old collection of sports cards will get value from grading their cards. There’s too many people who have hoards of cards before the market exploded so their cards are now worth 5 times what they were raw. Now add grading to the mix and your seeing 10 15 20 times their initial investment. An Mbappe sticker that you could have bought directly from panini back in 2018 for 25 cents is now selling for $400 graded. Regardless, as long as the value that PSA adds to your cards is greater than what they charge for grading, people are going to continue to pay the fees and based on whats going on, I think the submission prices are still cheap. We get people with old collections coming in all the time and they’re submitting 3-4-500 cards at a time on the PSA 10 day sub and I know, they wouldn’t hesitate to spend more when half of their cards are getting over $500 dollars in added value from being graded. That’s what were competing against and unfortunately for the new collector, price increases is going to continue because grading prices has not yet 5X’d like the retail prices have.
So if you’re complaining about the price increases, here’s a couple of solutions. 1. you could wait until the backlog shrinks and thats when prices will decrease. 2. you could use a different grading service, but theyre backlogged as well but I will warn you, PSA grades always yield a higher return than competitors 3. Don’t submit cards that wont get a return at least the grading fees. 4. Use a service like our “Nines and Dimes” service which only submits cards we think will grade 8 or higher. Check out our site for more information.
I hope this video didn’t offend you, but to us, the price increases were logical and they will continue. until the backlog shrinks. Noone wants to wait 3 years for a return so this needed to be addressed again and will be addressed again. This is what it is.
This is Rob from filthbomb breaks, and with that Im signing off. Leave a question, comment, etc and we’ll respond. Thanks for watching.
Were about to dive deep into some free knowledge for all you sports cards investors and flippers.
So today, were gonna be talking about when to buy and sell sports cards. Everybody knows that with any market, you really want to buy low and sell high to maximize your profits. The trick is, how do you know when to buy and when to sell. Were gonna run through a few strategies that we use in order to optimize our chances on making money.
The most obvious correlation to price changes is the seasons of each sport. During the season, the games are always an advertisement, heightening appeal and stimulating a subconscious demand. The beginning of every season, you have a slight growth in prices due to speculation on who will have a good season. Watch the full video for more.
]]>
It's hard to find sealed packs now and the hype train is going full speed and there is a huge scarcity among packs available. With that said, there is still room for appreciation and money to be made. In this video, we discuss the current state of the sports card market and delve into topics such as the reasons for this market growth, pack economics and quality. We give our recommendation on what we think is the best investment as well as some of the reason why we prefer certain years or players. The brands such as panini, topps and leaf are all evaluated and we give tips on where to put your money when it comes to sealed product.
]]>As if 2020 didn’t see enough of a spike in the most valuable sports cards in the world. 2021 is already starting off with another record breaking sale of a baseball card already featured on the top 5 list. On January 14th, 2021, a BGS 9 1952 Mickey Mantle became the world’s most expensive card ever sold with the sale price of $5.2 million dollars. It almost doubled the price of the previous Mickey Mantle card sold with the same condition. Currently, all five of the most expensive cards of all time are baseball cards with the most recent Mantle purchase knocking Giannis Antetekoumpos card off the list.
]]>