Article contributed by John Yohe (Filthbomb Analyst)
You’re heads up at the final table at the World Series of Poker. You’re dealt pocket aces and
your opponent raises you pre-flop all-in. Naturally, you immediately get that tingly feeling running throughout your body like you’re back in middle school and the bottle just stopped on you.
So, what do you do?
The only thing you can do – call!
When they river a set and you get that burning sensation in
your chest like a 3 am Taco Bell run, you begin to ask your self the age old question…..”did I make the right choice?”.
Some people would say it was the wrong call because you lost and it’s as simple as that.
Not me. I live my betting/sports/fantasy life as decision based over outcome based.
Why? Because we cannot control the outcome, but we can control the
decisions that are made and why we make them.
If I make a call that is rooted in facts and sound objective judgment, I can live with the outcome.
This is especially prevalent in baseball as everyone knows in this sport more than any other, ANYTHING can happen.
With that said, lets get into an opportunity I see based off cold hard numbers.
Let’s play a game. I’ll give you two pitchers and their numbers but omit the names.
Take guesses on who they are before the answer is given.
Player A has a 2.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.54 K/9, and 0.81 HR/9.
Player B has a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.44 K/9 and 2.34 HR/9.
Who comes to mind for player A?
Ryu? Verlander? deGrom? Player B can be anyone.
The answer is: it was a trick question.
Player A is Steven Matz at home and Player B is Steven Matz on the road. Huge discrepancy, right?
Well, Matz is on the road at Philadelphia today so that means we are dealing with Player B in the Mets @ Phillies game with their 4:05 PM Eastern start.
Let’s look at some other key numbers from this matchup.
Jason Vargas, Matz’s opponent, has a 3.75 home ERA since being acquired by the Phillies on July 29th. Granted that is a small sample size (4 starts), but that is what we have to work with so let’s use it.
Against lefties, the Phillies rank 6th in BB%, 6th in Hard Hit %, and 12th in K% while the Mets conversely rank 20th in BB%, 25th in Hard Hit %, and 19th in K%. What does this tell us?
The Phillies don’t have trouble with lefties while the Mets seem to struggle.
The icing on the cake: the Mets are 8 games under .500 on the road while the Phillies are 10 games over .500 at home.
You do the math; does all of this add up to the Mets being favored? Yeah, that’s right, The Mets
are -115 as of this writing and I say the numbers easily support the Phillies. I’ll take the home “dog” Phillies and watch with a smile on my face and an Arnold Palmer in my hand.
Can the Mets win? Absolutely, but remember, sound factual decision making over outcomes. I’ll live with my choice no matter the outcome because I know this method will work better in the long run. Go Phillies!
FREE PICK OF THE DAY: PHILLIES +112
FILTHBOMB RECORD: 0-0